The study of history and the plausibility for the alternative approach

The CS welcomes immigrants, but grants citizenship only to descendants of those who were citizens at the time of the Civil War victory and suffrage is only granted to white men. Even for a powerful study design, when the prior plausibility is low, the positive predictive value is low.

When it comes to low prior plausibility, homeopathy is the go-to treatment ; a status it has earned for very good reason. The fact of the matter is, while there can be a counterfactual claim in Thucydides or a counterfactual note present in Edward Gibbon in essays on counterfactual history, what is typically used is not the same as history, and not as old as the topic in question.

What If History: Is There Any Validity To Counterfactualism?

Lets start with a very basic study design. This category would include any pharmacological substance with an unknown mechanism of action, or mechanisms that are not known to interact with the disease or symptom being treated. That is the pattern of a treatment that does not work.

Plausibility in Science-Based Medicine

The ending, however, is highly controversial: Germany defeats the Allies in the battle of Normandy in Still, the author does try to portray more-or-less realistically how such a Japan would be ruled and how the Japanese and immigrants would live in it, as well as the impact it would have on US-China relationships.

If we calculate the PPV this study we come up with a value of 0. Leviathan, by Scott Westerfeld. In Pinnacle Entertainment's award winning campaign setting, "Deadlands", an alternate history reality in which pretty much all aspects of the horror genre exist in some form in the Old West is created.

A single positive study with a P value of. Most of us would estimate the prior probability of any clinical claim of homeopathy for any indication as infinitesimal irony intended. For homeopathy to work, numerous principles of chemistry and physics would have to be wrong. Involves giant robots and intelligent flying machines.

The film version is somewhat softer. Factors considered in evaluating relevance include, but are not limited to, study design characteristics e.

The Plausibility Problem

For example, Operation Whitecoat involved tests to evaluate biological warfare agents e. However, it is highly unlikely that the Spartacists had a chance at taking power, and without the aftershocks of the Russian Revolution, they might have even less chance of success. The take-home message of the graph above is this: Most of them have been dealt with on this blog at one time or another.

Decisive Darkness is solidly this, bordering on type III at times. They often invoke vague references to quantum mechanics or the counter-intuitive nature of subatomic physics or cosmology to make their point. While the line between "plausible" and not is subjective, the following five levels tend to encompass the general consensus in the online AH Fandom: However, the approach as designed is most appropriate when a large amount of human data is available, as is the case with most vaccines.

A prior probability of 0 means that there is zero chance that the premise is true. Kenya Withers, Uganda triumphs.

The Plausibility Problem

Type I - Hard Alternate History: For example, despite their being no incentive to, with America remaining isolationist throughout the early twentieth century, the country still creates and tests the world's first nuclear weapon.

However, thought experiments play a varied role, and knowledge production is a goal only under quite limited circumstances. But what happens when it brings up questions that really matter? In contrast with Type IV, these works are deliberately designed as pure fantasy, typically following the Rule of Cool.

Watchmen becomes a type X because of the existence of Dr. Lizards from Outer Space invade during World War 2 and the Axis and Allies must set aside their differences to save Earth from alien conquest!In order to accept the results of study favoring the study treatment, the P value must be at or below the predefined critical P value.

For most studies in medicine, the critical P value is (Specificity). Which of the following studies is an example of the behavioral approach to the study of international relations? the Correlates of War project Theory that addresses the ethical content of international affairs and explores what "should be" is known as ________ theory.

Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility

In the IOM Agent Orange Approach (e.g., NASEM, b) and the IOM Gulf War Approach (e.g., NASEM, c), animal and mechanistic studies are evaluated for the purpose of determining whether they suggest biological plausibility of agent- and outcome-specific associations identified in epidemiological studies.

Furthermore, the animal and. While seemingly counterproductive to good history, the use of counterfactualism does engage the imagination—in fact this is many historians reasoning for keeping counterfactualism alive in scholarly study—but the real reasoning behind continuing its presence in argument and discussion is because counterfactuals appeal to laws, rationality.

If clinical evidence is solid, that is enough, and often in the history of medicine lead to discoveries about mechanism and biology. The arrow of research can go both ways – understanding plausibility can lead to new treatments, but discovering new treatments can lead to discoveries about biology and mechanism.

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The two play off each other. For the study of our drug, lets assume the drug has a prior probability of.5, meaning that going into our study, there is a 50/50 chance that the drug is effective.

This is probably a reasonable estimate for a drug with a valid preclinical foundation, and promising phase 2 data.

The study of history and the plausibility for the alternative approach
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